Pirates' surge no surprise
Professor Gunnar Helgi Kristinsson. Photo: Ómar Óskarsson
The recent surge in support for Iceland's Pirate Party ('Píratar') does not come as a surprise and is in line with the political pattern in Iceland over the past decades according to Gunnar Helgi Kristinsson, professor of political science at the University of Iceland. Latest opinion polls have depicted the Pirates as Iceland's largest political party with 30-32% of the votes. About the same support the government enjoys at the moment.
"Looking at opinion polls over a long period of time you can see that there is always one opposition party that goes up in the polls for some time. Therefore it is perhaps questionable to read too much into this except that those dissatified will always end up somewhere," Professor Kristinsson explains. He doubts that most of those pledging support for the Pirates now have particularly clear picture of what the party stands for. Except for opposition to the status quo and the political system.
"We've seen this so many times over the years. Then someone will perhaps reach the top at the right moment during elections. But the right time to do that is not now in the middle of a term," Kristinsson furthermore explains. That doesn't mean, he adds, the current support will not remain with the Pirates to some extent. But to say anything concrete about that is simply too soon.
Kristinsson says the polls on the other hand indicate lasting dissatisfaction with the traditional parties. He points out that while support for the government has been going down other opposition parties have also been in trouble. Including Bright Future ('Björt framtíð') which is also a relatively new party.
Compared to Bright Future Kristinsson says the Pirates have a somewhat sharper and more radical tone. "That may suggest growing dissatisfaction." Without more information, he adds, it is nevertheless difficult to reach any concrete conclusions. He stresses, however, that this development does not come as a surprise. "But we may be witnessing more swings in support and more drastic changes."
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