Two-party coalition impossible

Coalition governments are a way of life in Iceland. If the next general elections go according to the most recent opinion polls, the next coalition government will have to be formed by three, perhaps even four, different parties.

The centre-right Independence Party (‘Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn’) emerges as the most popular party in Iceland in a recent Capacent poll. Assuming the actual results of the next general results are in line with this poll, Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn would have to be part of any new coalition government of three different parties. Without them, a four-party alliance would be necessary.

Four-party alliances very rare

While three-party coalitions have been fairly common in Iceland, there has only ever been one four-party coalition. The three-party coalition that took power in 1987 quickly ran into conflict and was replaced by a new three-party coalition of different parties. This new alliance, however, had a very weak parliamentary majority (31/63) and brought in a fourth partner in 1989. This historic four-party coalition remained in power until the subsequent general elections in 1991.

On the basis of the raw percentages the two largest parties, the Independence Party and the centre-left Social Democratic Alliance (‘Samfylkingin’), who have governed in coalition together before, would not be able to command a parliamentary majority.

The Indepedence Party and Social Democratic Alliance, even if they wished to cooperate politically, could not form a majority alliance alone. Photo: Source: Capacent, 3/3/15