Icelander develops a model to improve flight safety

Björn Birnir, who is a professor of mathematics at the University of California, Santa Barbara, has developed new and precise predictive models that he says could help engineers enhance the safety of air travel.

Studies show that severe turbulence incidents have increased by more than half in recent decades, likely due to global warming. Passenger flights remain very safe, however, and serious injuries are rare.

“The greatest unsolved problem in physics”

“I’ve often thought how wonderful it would be if we could make air travel a little smoother and safer. I believe aircraft design will benefit from this model,” Dr. Birnir told The New York Times.

Turbulence — or flow instability, as Dr. Birnir calls it — has long been a challenge for scientists, though recent years have brought major progress in understanding how it works.

The Nobel Prize–winning physicist Richard Feynman once described turbulence as the greatest unsolved problem in physics, as it arises from a complex interplay of factors such as pressure, heat, and wind.

The model Dr. Birnir developed together with Luiza Angheluta, a professor at the University of Oslo, is considered one of the most advanced ever created in the field and significantly improves understanding of what causes turbulence.

Expanding human knowledge

The model combines two distinct predictive approaches: the Lagrangian method, which tracks individual particles in motion, and the Eulerian method, which examines flow around fixed points in space.

Last month, turbulence on a Delta Airlines flight resulted in 25 passengers being hospitalized. Dr. Birnir believes that if the pilots had access to his model, preventive measures could likely have been taken to avoid the rough air.

Thomas Carney, professor emeritus of aeronautics at Purdue University, said Dr. Birnir’s research is “beyond my own comprehension,” but that he is convinced it will advance humanity’s understanding of flight and fluid dynamics.