Increased likelihood of eruption starting tomorrow
From the last eruption at the Sundhnúkagígar crater row in July. mbl.is/Árni Sæberg
The likelihood of a magma intrusion — and potentially a volcanic eruption — at the Sundhnúkagígar crater row will increase starting September 27, according to a new update from the Icelandic Meteorological Office.
The alert level for the area has been raised, and a new hazard map has been issued. The Icelandic Meterological Office warns that this period of heightened risk could last up to three months.
Lower threshold reached this weekend
Analysis of events at Sundhnúkagígar since December 2023 shows that the amount of magma needed to accumulate in the magma chamber beneath Svartsengi before an intrusion or eruption begins can vary.
By examining past events, the Icelandic Meterological Office has been able to estimate the approximate volume range required to trigger the next intrusion or eruption. Using deformation measurements and model calculations, they can predict when this critical volume will be reached — assuming the current magma accumulation rate remains steady.
The lower threshold, estimated at 11 million cubic meters of magma, is expected to be reached on Saturday, September 27.
The upper threshold, around 23 million cubic meters, is projected to be reached around December 18.
Elevated risk period of nearly three months
Once the lower threshold is reached, the area will enter a high-risk phase during which a magma intrusion or eruption could occur at any time.
If an eruption does occur, the most likely location remains between Mt. Sundhnúkur and Stóra-Skógfell, the same area where recent eruptions have taken place.
The Icelandic Meteorological Office cautions that warning time before an eruption could be very short — similar to previous events, which have given as little as 20 minutes’ notice, and up to just over four hours.
