Urgent action needed to prevent Gulf Stream collapse, experts warn

Immediate action is needed to prevent the collapse of the Gulf Stream. If the world waits too long, it could be too late. Iceland would feel the effects acutely, as the country would experience significant cooling.

This is what Halldór Björnsson, head of weather and climate at the Icelandic Meteorological Office, told mbl.is when asked about a new study showing that the collapse of the Gulf Stream can no longer be regarded as an unlikely event.

The study found that if carbon emissions continue to increase, there is a 70% chance of the current collapsing. If emissions remain at current levels, the likelihood is 37%.

Could take us by surprise after the turn of the century

“The conclusion is simple: this is yet another indication that greenhouse gas emissions must be stopped as soon as possible. For Iceland, this is extremely important,” said Björnsson.

As Icelanders know, the Gulf Stream is a vital part of the Earth’s climate system and the foundation of a livable climate in Iceland. The current carries warm water from the Southern Hemisphere to Europe and the Arctic, where the water cools, sinks, and drives a deep return flow.

“With global warming, temperatures rise everywhere, but they don’t rise quite as much here at first, because this current — this deepwater formation — is slowing down,” Björnsson explained.

“What we would see here is warming in the coming decades, then a slowdown, and this could take us by surprise after the turn of the century,” he said.

Emissions cuts cannot wait

Previous climate models suggested that a Gulf Stream collapse before the year 2100 was unlikely. However, the new study examined models projecting further into the future.

These showed that the tipping point making the collapse unavoidable will likely be reached within a few decades, although the collapse itself might not occur for another 50 to 100 years.

Björnsson agrees. He points out that decisions being made today could make this event inevitable. The time to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is now; if the world waits too long, it may be too late.