Tensions build beneath the Sundhnúkagígar crater row
The magma level under the Sundhnúkagígar crater row has never been higher, and it is expected that there will be very little warning before the next eruption. The last warning was only about half an hour. mbl.is/Árni Sæberg
Scientists at the Icelandic Meteorological Office are closely monitoring for any warning signs of an impending eruption. While their instruments have yet to detect definitive signals, recent increases in seismic activity suggest growing pressure beneath the eruption sites.
However, earthquake activity at Sundhnúkagígar has been notably low today. Over the past 12 hours, only one minor earthquake has been recorded—a 1.3-magnitude tremor at 8:37 a.m., approximately one-kilometer northeast of Mt. Sundhnúkur.
Despite the relative calm, natural disaster expert Kristín Elísa Guðmundsdóttir warns against reading too much into short-term fluctuations.
"It’s difficult to interpret a trend based on just a few days," she told mbl.is, adding that the Icelandic Meteorological Office has already confirmed increased seismic activity in recent days.
The map shows the location of earthquakes around the Sundhnúkagígar crater row over the past 14 days. Red circles show the locations of earthquakes that have occurred in the past three days, or since the route was temporarily changed due to a disturbance. It can be seen that these earthquakes occur on or very close to volcanic fissures that have opened since December 2023, which are shown as dark red lines. Other colors show the locations of earthquakes before the route was changed. Map/Icelandic Met Office
How will we know when an eruption is imminent?
Currently, almost 40 million cubic meters of magma are accumulating beneath the Sundhnúkagígar crater row—the highest volume since the eruption series began in December 2023.
When an eruption does begin, it is expected to come with little warning. “Last time, we had only about 30 minutes' notice,” Guðmundsdóttir explained.
What are the key warning signs?
The most reliable indicators of an impending eruption include:
- Increased seismic activity in the magma tunnel
- Pressure changes in HS Orka’s boreholes in Svartsengi, signaling magma movement underground
Currently, neither of these signs has been detected, meaning the situation remains stable—for now.
"Everything is quiet at the moment, but that can change very quickly," Guðmundsdóttir cautioned.
The graph extends until March 11 and shows the estimated amount of magma that has been added under Svartsengi between the eruptions or magma flows that have occurred since November 2023. Graph/Icelandic Met Office
Risk assessment remains unchanged
A statement from the Icelandic Meteorological Office, issued today, confirms that the risk assessment remains unchanged until March 18.
The most likely scenario remains a magma intrusion followed by an eruption, with the first activity expected between Mt. Sundhnúkur and Mt. Stóra-Skógfell.
The office also clarified that recent discrepancies in the mapping of seismic activity in the crater row have now been corrected, ensuring more accurate monitoring moving forward.
For live updates, you can follow the Sundhnúkagígar crater row live stream [ here ].
