Little hope for lasting peace in Ukraine, says historian
Radchenko says there is little hope that lasting peace will emerge from the talks. Morgunblaðið/Eyþór
There is little optimism that ongoing peace efforts will lead to a lasting resolution in the Ukraine war, according to British-Russian historian Sergey Radchenko, a professor of international affairs at Johns Hopkins University. In an interview with Morgunblaðið during his visit to Iceland on Friday, Radchenko discussed the ongoing conflict and delivered a seminar on the situation at the University of Iceland.
Putin’s goals: Control and annexation
Radchenko emphasized the importance of understanding Vladimir Putin’s objectives, which he says are clear: political control over Ukraine and the retention of annexed Ukrainian territories as part of Russia.
“Russia has annexed several regions of Ukraine and wants international recognition of that annexation, even though its military has yet to secure full control over them,” Radchenko explained.
Beyond securing those territories, Putin also aims to assert political dominance over the rest of Ukraine, making its government subordinate to Moscow’s interests.
No interest in a simple ceasefire
Radchenko noted that Putin has repeatedly dismissed the idea of a ceasefire, arguing that it would only give Ukraine time to rearm. “Especially now, when he believes the war is going well for Russia, he wants to continue fighting until Ukraine accepts his terms,” Radchenko said.
Those terms, he added, are reminiscent of the conditions Russia put forward in Istanbul in the spring of 2022, which would have effectively placed Ukraine under Russian influence and stripped it of political independence.
Putin’s strategic maneuvering
Radchenko also referenced Putin’s recent comments following a meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, where the Russian leader expressed openness to a ceasefire but insisted that proposals required further discussion.
“By doing this, Putin is setting conditions that serve his interests,” Radchenko explained. “When it comes to a straightforward ceasefire—such as the one proposed by [Donald] Trump—he has no interest in it.”
With Putin’s ambitions unchanged and no signs of compromise, Radchenko believes there is little hope that current peace efforts will lead to a lasting settlement.
A longer version of the interview was in Morgunblaðið on Saturday.
