Increased risk of volcanic eruption

Updated modeling calculations show that the amount of magma that has accumulated under Svartsengi is now as large as it was before the eruption that began on November 20 last year.

This is stated in a statement from the Icelandic Meteorological Office, which states that based on previous events at the Sundhnúkagígar crater row, it can be assumed that there is an increasing probability that the next event will begin within a few days or weeks. If an eruption occurs, it will be the eighth volcanic eruption at the Sundhnúkagígar crater row since December 2023.

The statement also reports that due to these repeated events where magma runs and volcanic fissures have formed, the tension in the earth's crust has decreased with each event. This means that fewer and smaller earthquakes are measured in the area in the weeks and days before an eruption than they did in the run-up to the first eruptions.

The signs that magma is reaching the surface are intense small earthquake swarms in the Sundhnúkagígar crater row, pressure changes in HS Orka's boreholes in Svartsengi, deformation of fiber optic cables and deformation of the surface seen in real-time GPS measurements. Very short notice of an eruption is required, down to 30 minutes.

In light of updated model calculations, the Icelandic Meteorological Office has issued an updated hazard assessment. There have been three changes since the last hazard assessment. The hazard in Area 1 (Svartsengi) and Area 5 is being upgraded from being rated "some" (yellow) to being rated "substantial" (orange). The hazard for Area 3, the Sundhnúkagígar crater row, is being upgraded from being rated "substantial" (orange) to being rated "high" (red).