Will there be an election or a Christmas eruption?
Benedikt Gunnar Ófeigsson, head of deformation measurements at the Icelandic Meteorological Office. Composite image
"Perhaps it will soon reach a similar volume as before the last eruption," says Benedikt Gunnar Ófeigsson, head of deformation measurements at the Icelandic Meteorological Office, in an interview with mbl.is about the situation of magma accumulation under Svartsengi. He adds that the uncertainty is, however, always there.
The amount that is believed to need to accumulate for the next magma flow is believed to be a minimum of 23 million cubic meters.
"I would say that in the next two weeks, we should achieve it," Ófeigsson says , but the parliamentary elections are almost two weeks away, on Saturday, November 30.
Seismic activity has not increased by much
Ófeigsson says that seismic activity often increases weeks or months before an eruption, but there is only a slight increase.
"We're just starting to see it, but it's nowhere near what it's been for the last two eruptions at least." So we rather expect that it will be something longer than just these two weeks," he says, adding that it is impossible to say anything.
He says that it is unlikely that anything will happen until the seismic activity increases.
"It's a sign that pressure is building as she grows."
The last eruption started on August 22, 2024. mbl.is/Eggert Jóhannesson
Longer time between eruptions
Asked if the inflation has slowed down, Ófeigsson says that before the weekend, the inflation was quite stable.
He says that there can be fluctuations between days in the measurements, and therefore the speed of the inflation must be evaluated over a longer time.
Does everything indicate that the next eruption will be similar to the last eruptions?
"Yes, all the signs - earthquakes, inflation, and all that - are very similar. So one now rather expects the pending eruption to behave similarly."
Ófeigsson says that the trend is such, however, that there is a longer time between eruptions.
"More and more is always needed. Maybe that's why we're just being careful with announcements, maybe we have to wait a little bit for this."
Maybe it will just be Christmas eruption?
"Yes, maybe. We'll just see how it goes. That is at least one possibility for sure."
