Eruption risk rising in Grindavík
Frá Grindavík. mbl.is/Eggert Jóhannesson
According to the latest Met Office data, Magma continues accumulating under Svartsengi. A magma run or a volcanic eruption is expected in the next two to three weeks.
This is reported by the Met Office in a notification.
It says, among other things, that it is not possible to exclude the possibility of a volcanic fissure opening within Grindavík. However, it is most likely that a volcanic fissure would open up north of the town before it would open up within the town limits.
It is suggested that lava flowing from a volcanic eruption north of the defense walls near Grindavík may flow into fissures and then they could re-emerge through open fissures within the town limits.
A new hazard assessment
The Icelandic Met Office has issued a new hazard assessment, which raises the hazard level in all areas except for area 7, including Grindavík.
The risk assessment is valid until July 30, if nothing changes.
“All our measurements and calculations indicate that the magma accumulation under Svartsengi is continuing at a steady rate,” said Michelle Maree Parks, a specialist in deformation at the Icelandic Met Office.
“It’s not unusual that we get a fluctuation in the measurements of the inflation between one day and another, and therefore it’s important to look at the overall picture from GPS measurements, satellite images, and models over a longer period. There are no indications in our data that indicate anything other than that we can expect a new magma run and even a volcanic eruption in the next two to three weeks or so.”
A new danger assessment from the Icelandic Met Office was issued on July 23 and will be in place until July 30 until something changes. Map/The Icelandic Met Office
About ten earthquakes a day
It is noted that the seismic activity in the last few days has been very low. Ten earthquakes have been detected near the magma channel in the Sundhnúkagígar crater row in the past day and about 90 in the past week.
“Most of them are below one in size and are in similar areas as in previous events. In comparison, more than 50 earthquakes were measured daily in the lead-up to the last eruption. Seismic activity is increasing slowly from day to day if you look at the last few weeks, which is in line with the development of magma accumulation under Svartsengi,” the Met Office states.
According to the probability calculations, the total amount added since the last eruption is most likely to approach 16 million cubic meters in the coming days. Compared to previous eruptions, it takes 13 to 19 million cubic metres to start an eruption or a magma-run.
