Increased probability of an eruption within the borders of Grindavík
Seen over Grindavík. mbl.is/Eggert Jóhannesson
The likelihood of a magma-run or a new volcanic eruption in the next three weeks has increased considerably. This is stated in a notice from the Met Office.
It says that according to probability calculations, approximately thirteen million cubic metres of magma have been added to the magma chamber beneath Svartsengi.
“Today, the amount of magma added has reached the lower limit of the amount of magma that is considered necessary to trigger a new magma-run and even a volcanic eruption,” the announcement states.
The Icelandic Met Office's danger assessment for Grindavík and vicinity from July 16. Map/Icelandic Met Office
The eruption activity is moving south
A new hazard assessment is attached to the notification.
It is stated that the most recent analysis of how the location of eruption has evolved during the last eruptions at the Sundhnúkagígar crater row indicates that the eruption activity moves southwards and closer to Grindavík with each occurrence.
“Taking into account these analyses and if you take into account that since November 2023, the earthquakes have caused a significant amount of fissure movement within the town of Grindavík, this hazard assessment reflects the increased likelihood of lava erupting within Zone 4 - Grindavík - in the next eruption.”
