Updated risk assessment: Another eruption likely in coming weeks

Inflation is now measured more than it was before the …

Inflation is now measured more than it was before the last eruption. mbl.is/Eggert Jóhannesson

The speed of the inflation is higher than before the eruption on May 29 and is at a similar rate as at the beginning of the year. There is a chance of another magma-run and the likelihood of another volcanic eruption in the coming weeks and months.

This is stated in an updated hazard assessment from the Icelandic Met Office.

It is stated that the results of the probability calculations indicate that, based on the current inflow, the magma chamber under Svartsengi will be in a similar position as before the volcanic eruption on  May 29, in three to six weeks.

“As of today, it is therefore likely that a magma-run or a volcanic eruption will start in the coming weeks and months,” the announcement states.

Risk levels within Zone 3 range from high (red) to …

Risk levels within Zone 3 range from high (red) to considerable (orange) and within Zone 5 from considerable (orange) to some (yellow). Map/​​The Icelandic Met Office

13-19 million cubic meters of magma from the magma chamber

The model based on deformation data shows that the magma inflow into the magma chamber under Svartsengi is now 4-6 cubic meters per second. At the beginning of the magma intrusion and subsequent volcanic eruption on May 29, it is estimated that approximately 13-19 million cubic meters have left the magma chamber.

The Icelandic Met Office has updated the hazard assessment, which is valid unchanged until  July 9.

The risk of lava flow and gas pollution has been reduced but the overall hazard assessment is unchanged, except for two areas.

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