Very close race for the top three
Halla Hrund Logadóttir, Katrín Jakobsdóttir, and Halla Tómasdóttir are neck and neck at the top in the presidential run. Composite image
According to the latest poll from Prósenta, the Icelandic Centre for Social Research, three presidential candidates share the top spot. Halla Hrund Logadóttir, Halla Tómasdóttir, and Katrín Jakobsdóttir all share a margin of between 20.1% and 21.0%, which is far from statistically significant, with a margin of between 18.1% and 23.2%.
Exciting election ahead
Given that, it seems safe to assume that next weekend will be the nation’s most exciting presidential election in the history of the Republic, where a few votes could be the decisive factor in who will be Iceland’s next president.
According to the poll, Halla Hrund Logadóttir has the highest approval rating (21.0%). Still, as before, it’s so slightly higher than the next two candidates, that it’s impossible to state that she’s leading in the poll, which began last Tuesday and lasted until yesterday morning.
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However, there is even a smaller difference between the two, with Halla Tómasdóttir having a 0.1% higher approval rating than Katrín Jakobsdóttir. That difference was in two more answers for Halla Tómasdóttir, which isn’t enough to draw any conclusions from.
Baldur Þórhallsson has a 16.9% approval rating, which is significantly less than Logadóttir’s, but his upper margin of approval slightly overlaps with Halla Tómasdóttir and Jakobsdóttir’s lower margin of approval. He has therefore a good chance of getting involved in the fight in the final round.
However, Jón Gnarr’s support continued to decline, so it’s unlikely that he will be able to make it into the top fight. To do so, he would have to double his support this week. According to this poll, Arnar Þór Jónsson has increased his support somewhat and now has 6.4%, but he would have to more than triple that to close the top row.
However, it is still interesting to consider which candidate respondents consider most likely to win, regardless of who they would rather win. To some extent, these answers reflect the results of other surveys, but they also tend to highlight hidden support or misguided beliefs.
Katrín Jakobsdóttir has taken a decisive lead over all other candidates, with nearly 45% of respondents saying she will be Iceland’s next president. Jakobsdóttir is getting more than twice as many votes as the next candidate, and more than twice as many registered voters in the poll.
Halla Hrund Logadóttir is next in line with her followers but Baldur Þórhallsson’s followers seem to have become less optimistic about his victory, and not all of Halla Tómasdóttir’s followers are convinced of her victory either.
