Recurrent activity to be expected

Þorvaldur Þórðarson, professor of volcanology at the University of Iceland, thinks it’s likely that some volcanic activity will return to the Reykjanes peninsula in about three weeks.

The fifth volcanic eruption in the last three years began on Sunday, January 14 north of Grindavík and ended two days later. The eruption was the most dangerous in this cycle, but after another fissure opened up inside the defense wall, the lava flowed towards the town and burnt three houses that stood by the street Efrihópur.

Could be recurring throughout the year

“I can imagine repeating this scenario in about three weeks,” Þórðarson told mbl.is when asked to assess the situation.

He says that one should expect this scenario to continue throughout this year or even longer.

Never erupted within the town’s borders

Do you still feel there is a risk of fissures opening up closer to Grindavík?

“I rely on geological data and the geology itself. There has never been an eruption within the town limits where Grindavík is located, but of course we can’t exclude that it will happen. I think it’s very unlikely, however. This fissure that opened up north of the town was probably magma that leaked from the upper fissure.”

He says that there are clearly tectonic movements in Grindavík and there is still a glimmer of cracks and movement in some of these faults and especially in the events that took place.

Probably no magma under Grindavík

“This depression that is east of town and moved on November 10 is clearly moving again now. This is not a new depression, but rather an old one. Grindavík is rather poorly located and is vulnerable to these fault movements movements and I don’t think there is much magma beneath the town and most likely not at all,” he says.

Þórðarson says that while there are movements in the cracks and faults going on it will have an impact inside the town and it doesn't make sense for anyone to be there during that time at this point.

“If this seismic activity continues in the next few years, which can happen, it will make it harder and harder to see a realistic development in town.”

Ármann Höskuldsson, a professor of volcanology, has often but not always talked about the possibility of Eldvörp becoming the next eruption site. Þórðarson is asked if he can see that happening.

“It could happen. If it closes the eruption channels at the Sundhnúkagígar crater row area and it continues to pour magma into Svartsengi, the pressure could begin to dissipate at the Eldvörp volcano, which would end in an eruption. They are farther away from Grindavík and Svartsengi, and would be a more suitable location.”

Þórðarson says that if an eruption occurs in the northern part of the Sundhnúkagígar fissure or in the Arnarsetursgígar craters, the settlement at Vogar could be in some danger.

“I think people should start thinking about defenses if that scenario is realized. In Vogar we have the only oxygen factory in the country and if the hospitals are to get oxygen, something must be done to keep it running. It’s possible to start designing the defenses, see where they can be best located and find materials for them.”