60% chance of an eruption soon
Þórðarson says that it is vitally important to secure the infrastructure in the area, even if the worst scenario might not happen now. Composite image
Þorvaldur Þórðarson, professor of volcanology and rock science at the University of Iceland, says that building a defensive wall around Svartsengi is not something that should wait.
A powerful earthquake began on the Reykjanes peninsula after midnight last night, and the largest earthquake measured magnitude 4.8. It originated just west of Mt. Þorbjörn.
Internal pressures building up
“These earthquakes show us that internal pressure is building up in this storage chamber at a depth of four to five kilometres. There is a constant inflow and the land rise is part of the volume change that is happening,” Þórðarson told mbl.is.
“There is also pressure building up inside the chamber and once it is so great and larger than the roof’s fragility above, there will be a bigger tremor and more cracks forming. As this goes on, there is a higher chance that the magma will go up to the surface.”
Kristín Jónsdóttir, divisional manager and seismologist at the Met Office, told mbl.is yesterday that after an information meeting with the people of Suðurnes, it was most likely that the land-rising near Mt. Þorbjörn would cease. In an opinion on this, Þórðarson says:
“It can stop and then there won’t be any eruption, which we all hope. If we look back in time and look at it in historical context, this is the fifth time in four years that a magma deposit has been deposited in the same place, which means that there is clearly some magma deposit deeper in the ground that is expanding. That’s what we saw with Fagradalsfjall. If it stops now, I’d think it’ll start again sometime soon,” he says.
Chances 60/40 of an eruption soon
What is your feeling now. Do you think it is more likely than not that we will see an eruption soon?
“If I take the probability, which is a straightforward guess, I think the probability of an volcanic eruption soon is around 60/40. We can’t say exactly what the situation is, but if we’re going to try to protect the infrastructure that’s there, we have to take defensive action now,” Þórðarson says.
Þórðarson encourages people to be prepared to leave the area.
“The worst scenario is certainly not the most likely, but it’s still in the picture, and we have to assume this in all our actions and responses. I would rather call for evacuation more often and look like a fool in the media than to risk human lives.”
