Eruption could be sooner than later

In terms of seismic activity, the magma is located on the Reykjanes peninsula at a depth of about two kilometres. In terms of the scenario from the previous two volcanic eruptions on the Reykjanes peninsula, the eruption could occur in less than five days.

This is what Benedikt Gunnar Ófeigsson, a tectonics expert at the Icelandic Met Office, says about the earthquake and possible volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes peninsula.

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Earthquake of magnitude 4.8 this morning originating in Fagradalsfjall

“I would think the magma is at a depth of two to three kilometers. It’s pretty shallow and it looks like an eruption could happen soon. The time is always getting shorter. In the first eruption, it was two weeks until the eruption. “In the last eruption, it was only five days before it started to erupt,” says Ófeigsson.

“We have to assume that it is shorter until an eruption happens now, we can’t be sure about that, but we have to be ready for it, ” he adds, asked about the possible timing of an eruption based on the history of the last two volcanic eruptions in the area.

Many similarities to the last volcanic eruptions

Asked if this is as the same scenario as last year when the eruption of Meradalur erupted, Ófeigsson says it is very similar. He also says that if there is a volcanic eruption, it suggests that it will be similar to volcanic eruptions in the last few years.

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“The activity is a little bit farther north than it was then. The magma always looks for cracks where it’s easiest to go.

How far it will go cannot be determined. Time must tell. We are not expecting a great flow there. This is not threatening any infrastructure or settlement, unless it becomes a significant long eruption,” he says, adding that magma is most likely to emerge between Fagradalsfjall and Keilir.

Expecting large quakes

Ófeigsson says that quakes of magnitude 6.0-6.3 can be expected at the Sulfur Mountains, closer to the capital area.

“With the Sulfur mountains, there is a high tension. We are closer to the capital area, which could be the greatest danger. There are two risks. There may be rockfall, so it’s not a good idea now to be close to steep slopes.

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Then people have to consider the traditional preparation for an earthquake. “Make sure shelves are secure and look after loose objects,” he says, pleading for people to be careful.

The magma makes its way toward the surface

Asked what triggers an earthquake like this, Benedikt points out that the land rise has been ongoing in the Reykjanes peninsula region since April.

He says that the land rise has triggered seismic activity elsewhere in the country, and reiterates that seismic activity at Bárðarbunga and at Vífilsfell in the last few days has not triggered a seismic event on the Reykjanes peninsula.

“What happens now is that the pressure of magma is expected to be so great that the crust can not suppress it. So now it’s starting to move out of the magma chamber and into the crust towards Keilir mountain. It’s coming towards the surface.”