Says the end may be near: “Could be a New Year’s eruption”
"I feel we are approaching the end of this," says Þorvaldur Þórðarson, professor of volcanology. Composite image/mbl.is/Arnþór/Árni Sæberg
Þorvaldur Þórðarson, professor of volcanology, says it is quite likely that nothing significant will happen at the Sundhnúkagígar crater row until around the New Year. The land inflation has slowed.
The volume of magma that has drained from Svartsengi during each eruption since March last year has varied between 12 and 31 million cubic meters.
According to the Icelandic Met Office’s latest modeling, around 15 million cubic meters of magma have accumulated beneath Svartsengi since the last eruption — the ninth eruption since the eruption cycle there began in December 2023.
An eruption could happen at any time
“The inflation has slowed, and that means it could take longer for an eruption to start. Certainly, there is a possibility that it could erupt today or tomorrow, but based on the current uplift rate, it would take just over 40 days to reach the maximum magma volume seen in this cycle,” Þórðarson tells mbl.is.
He says a New Year’s eruption — or one around Twelfth Night — is possible, but because the magma volume is already above the minimum threshold, an eruption could in fact occur at any time.
Feels the end is approaching
“The most likely scenario is that something happens around New Year, but there is no doubt that the system is slowing down. The long-term inflation trend has flattened, even though it is still oscillating up and down.”
Could this be the last eruption in the current eruption cycle?
“It’s hard to state anything definitively, but I feel we are approaching the end of this. That said, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the magma failed to reach the surface and no eruption occurred,” Þórðarson says.
Askja and Katla preparing for eruptions
Þórðarson adds that Sundhnúkagígar is not the only place that requires close monitoring. He says there is no doubt that Katla and Askja are preparing for eruptions.
“We must keep in mind that we have never before been able to monitor the preparatory stages of these volcanoes with modern instruments. Both Askja and Katla appear to be preparing to erupt, but whether that happens in the coming months or years is impossible to say right now.”
He also points to the Ljósufjöll volcanic system on Snæfellsnes. Clear signs of magma accumulation can be seen near Grjótárvatn Lake, and if that magma begins to ascend and reaches a depth of 10 kilometers, an eruption could follow relatively soon. It hasn’t started doing that yet, he notes, “but it’s something we must keep an eye on.”
